It usually takes some time to figure out that the emperor is not wearing any clothes. But sometimes you can instantly spot the naked emperor. Google Wave is one such business.
Here's why I think it will fail:
- It fails the five second test. I've met a number of people about what Google Wave is and what it does. Nobody has been able to tell me in less than 5 seconds what it is and what it does. Even I can't describe it in less than 5 seconds even after playing with it for sometime. Actually if I had to describe it, I would say that it's instant messaging where people on the other side can see what you are typing in real time (so don't type anything unflattering or you'll lose a friend or a client :))
- It fails the "For Whom" test. It's not immediately clear as to who will benefit from the product. Every tech product needs it's early adopters. There is nobody identified for this product.
- It may fill a gap in the market but if fails to find a market in the gap. It may be important for some people (litigating ex-lovers perhaps :)) to see you typing in real time and see who said what and when but it's a huge waste of time and energy for the vast majority of people.
- There is no business model.
So I think it's time to wave Google Wave a happy and safe departure into the netherworld of dead products :)
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