Here's why I think it will fail:
1. Fails the "5 Second Test" - It's hard for a person to describe the service to another person inside 5 seconds. People have a challenge in telling how it is different from Facebook.
2. Fails "For Whom Test" - It's not clear as to whom the service is targeted at. Every technology needs its early adopters. Facebook had Harvard college students. Who is the initial target market for Google+?
3. Fails "For When Test" - It's not clear as to when you'd use the service. Is it for when you need to find a new friend? Is it for when you need to share something?
4. Feature Fatigue - Sure the interface looks slick and there is some jaw dropping technology in the back-end. But there are too many features in there that are diluting what the service is all about. Each of those features (Circles, Hangouts, Instant Upload, Huddle) could be stand-alone products. At present it looks like a Swiss army knife.
5. Brand Extension - Google is extending its brand name too much. This is like Kenny Rogers trying to stay current by making rap music. In most consumers' minds, Google is still "Search." Doing anything else should be under a different brand.
6. Name Problem - Google+ is generic. It does not roll of your tongue like a noun. Worse still, Google already stands for search.
Does making a lot of money and being successful, reduce your IQ? Looks like it based on this brand new Google project.
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